Tim Nailed Spidey, Eric Nailed Pirates
A month into the summer and only three of our top 20 movies have been released.
So how did we do?
Well, first, we correctly predicted that the only three movies to come out of March and make the top 20 had threes behind their names. So, apparently, had Lohan wanted to finally hit it big, Georgia Rules 3 would have been a better way to go.
Here's Poland's current estimates. The Pirates estimate is still pretty early since it's only played one weekend, but he's got a week of data to base it on, so it's not quite a wild guess. I'm thinking it could still go ±$25M either way...heck it's 6-day total is $23M behind Spidey 3's 6-day, so it's possible it may still land somewhere between Spidey and Shrek. Shrek is a couple weeks from it's delivery date so probably only ±$10M. Spidey ain't getting past $330M...but if it does, Tim's spot on.
Estimated final (current)
Pirates - $345 ($167)
Spidey - $325 ($310)
Shrek3 - $310 ($224)
That means together the three grosses $980M. Tim predicted that the three would gross $1.12B (off by 12.5%) and I guessed $1.03B (off by 5%).
Like I mentioned, Tim's $330 for Spidey was much better than my $360.
Tim's $400M for Pirates, however, was quite a bit of stretching and unless this movie proves to have surprisingly strong legs and not sea legs, it ain't even getting close. Eric's guess of $342 may rival Tim's Spidey guess for the best guess of the summer.
Tim totally missed Shrek. The movie that may not actually hit $300 million but to make Tim's prediction Shrek's gotta lead his fairy tale cadre to another $166M additional dollars..notta chance. My $330 looks to be a bit high too, especially if Surf's Up actually performs.
Oh well, there's a bit of a lull for the next couple weeks. Most interesting things will be watching to see how Knocked Up, Hostel 2, and Sicko do.
So how did we do?
Well, first, we correctly predicted that the only three movies to come out of March and make the top 20 had threes behind their names. So, apparently, had Lohan wanted to finally hit it big, Georgia Rules 3 would have been a better way to go.
Here's Poland's current estimates. The Pirates estimate is still pretty early since it's only played one weekend, but he's got a week of data to base it on, so it's not quite a wild guess. I'm thinking it could still go ±$25M either way...heck it's 6-day total is $23M behind Spidey 3's 6-day, so it's possible it may still land somewhere between Spidey and Shrek. Shrek is a couple weeks from it's delivery date so probably only ±$10M. Spidey ain't getting past $330M...but if it does, Tim's spot on.
Estimated final (current)
Pirates - $345 ($167)
Spidey - $325 ($310)
Shrek3 - $310 ($224)
That means together the three grosses $980M. Tim predicted that the three would gross $1.12B (off by 12.5%) and I guessed $1.03B (off by 5%).
Like I mentioned, Tim's $330 for Spidey was much better than my $360.
Tim's $400M for Pirates, however, was quite a bit of stretching and unless this movie proves to have surprisingly strong legs and not sea legs, it ain't even getting close. Eric's guess of $342 may rival Tim's Spidey guess for the best guess of the summer.
Tim totally missed Shrek. The movie that may not actually hit $300 million but to make Tim's prediction Shrek's gotta lead his fairy tale cadre to another $166M additional dollars..notta chance. My $330 looks to be a bit high too, especially if Surf's Up actually performs.
Oh well, there's a bit of a lull for the next couple weeks. Most interesting things will be watching to see how Knocked Up, Hostel 2, and Sicko do.
Labels: Box Office, Predictions, summer 2007
posted by Eric at Friday, June 01, 2007
5 Comments:
That's some gold medal blogging there. Awarded for the phrase "fairy tale cadre".
originally it was "fairy tale cabal", but I thought that word might give too much of a revolutionary tone to the sentence.
In either case, I graciously accept this gold medal and don't all proceeds to the homeless people of the world.
Well, I just looked at the numbers for Pirates second week...man, I'm screwed. That thing dropped 68% which is worse than the drop after Planet Of The Apes. I'm done for!
You're screwed.
Knocked Up beat Pirates 3 at the box office on Monday. I bet that never in their wildest dreams did Universal think that they were going move ahead of Pirates on its fourth day of release.
Pirates 3 just fell behind Shrek 3 after three weeks. It's gonna crawl past $300M.
Ouch!
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