Summer Guesses

1 Hancock $300
2 Narnia: Prince Caspian $300
3 Indiana Jones $280
4 Wall-E $250
5 The Dark Knight $240
6 Kung Fu Panda $160
7 Iron Man $150
8 Meet Dave $120
9 The Mummy 3 $100
10 The Happening $100
11 Speed Racer $80
12 You Don't Mess with the Zohan $80
13 Step Brothers $80
14 Hellboy 2: The Golden Army $80
15 Get Smart $80
16 The Pineapple Express $75
17 Star Wars: The Clone Wars $70
18 Wanted $70
19 Sex and the City $60
20 The Incredible Hulk $50

Summer Guesses

The Dark Knight 305
Narnia 300
Indiana Jones 280
James Bond 215
Wall-E 200
Iron Man 175
Mummy 3 150
Hancock 145
Journey To The Center Of The Earth 140
Sex And The City 130
The Wanted 125
Tropic Thunder 120
Kung Fu Panda 115
You Don't Mess With The Zohan 105
Speed Racer 100
Hellboy 2 95
Star Trek 85
Step Brothers 90
The Incredible Hulk 85
Get Smart 80
Meet Dave 80
X-Files 2 75
Pineapple Express 75
Mamma Mia 70
The Happening 65
The Love Guru 55
He's Just Not That Into You 50

Tim Nailed Spidey, Eric Nailed Pirates

A month into the summer and only three of our top 20 movies have been released.

So how did we do?

Well, first, we correctly predicted that the only three movies to come out of March and make the top 20 had threes behind their names. So, apparently, had Lohan wanted to finally hit it big, Georgia Rules 3 would have been a better way to go.

Here's Poland's current estimates. The Pirates estimate is still pretty early since it's only played one weekend, but he's got a week of data to base it on, so it's not quite a wild guess. I'm thinking it could still go ±$25M either way...heck it's 6-day total is $23M behind Spidey 3's 6-day, so it's possible it may still land somewhere between Spidey and Shrek. Shrek is a couple weeks from it's delivery date so probably only ±$10M. Spidey ain't getting past $330M...but if it does, Tim's spot on.

Estimated final (current)
Pirates - $345 ($167)
Spidey - $325 ($310)
Shrek3 - $310 ($224)

That means together the three grosses $980M. Tim predicted that the three would gross $1.12B (off by 12.5%) and I guessed $1.03B (off by 5%).

Like I mentioned, Tim's $330 for Spidey was much better than my $360.
Tim's $400M for Pirates, however, was quite a bit of stretching and unless this movie proves to have surprisingly strong legs and not sea legs, it ain't even getting close. Eric's guess of $342 may rival Tim's Spidey guess for the best guess of the summer.
Tim totally missed Shrek. The movie that may not actually hit $300 million but to make Tim's prediction Shrek's gotta lead his fairy tale cadre to another $166M additional dollars..notta chance. My $330 looks to be a bit high too, especially if Surf's Up actually performs.

Oh well, there's a bit of a lull for the next couple weeks. Most interesting things will be watching to see how Knocked Up, Hostel 2, and Sicko do.

Eric's Summer 2007 Guesses

Here's my updated list. I stuck with my philosophy that it's all about openings. So, in light of the Yahoo post I adjusted some of the openings I had anticipated. All changes to my opening-based guesses are noted in parenthesis.

1. Harry Potter 5, $400
2. Spider-Man 3, $360 ($120, C)
3. Pirates 3, $342 ($120, D)
4. Shrek 3, $330
5. Simpsons Movie, $264 ($80, B)
6. Ratatouille, $260
7. Bourne Ultimatum, $200
8. Evan Almighty, $198
9. Transformers, $191 ($85M, F)
10. Chuck and Larry, $149
11. Live Free or Die Hard, $114 ($40, D)
12. Knocked Up, $112
13. Surf's Up, $111
14. Fantastic Four 2, $78
15. Ocean's Thirteen, $73
16. 1408, $66
17. 28 Weeks Later, $63
18. Invasion, $60
19. Hairspray, $56
20. Sicko, $50

Summer Guesses 2007

1. Pirates III 400
2. Shrek III 390
4. Harry Potter 5 375
3. Spider Man 3 330
8. Evan Almighty 185
5. Ratatouille 180
12. Chuck & Larry 135
9. Bourne 3 125
11. Hairspray 120
10. Ocean's 13 115
6. Transformers 110
14. Die Hard 4 105
17. Knocked Up 95
27. Stardust 90
15. Surf's Up 85
7. Rush Hour 3 80
28. The Invasion 75
19. The Simpsons 70
24. Hostel 2 65

Eric's Summer Update, Week 2

Movie, Estimated Gross, (change from last week)

1. DaVinci Code, $325, (+25M)
2. Cars, $300, (+$70M)
3. M:i:iii, $225
4. Pirates 2, $200, (-$150M)
5. Superman, $200, (+25M)
6. X-Men 2, $185
7. Over The Hedge, $175
8. The Break Up, $150
9. Poseidon, $115, (+45M)
10. Click, $110, (-$30M)
11. Talladega Nights, $85, (+25M)
12. Miami Vice, $80
13. You, Me & Dupree, $75
14. The Ant Bully, $70
15. Illusionist, $65, (new)
16. Nacho Libre, $60
17. FF3, $60
18. Lady in the Water, $60
19. Super Ex-Girlfriend, $60
20. Just My Luck, $55

The big mover is Pirates 2. EW convinced me that it may not be quite as desired as I thought. Cars is the other big mover...but in the opposite direction...since my initial guess was below Nemo and Incredibles.

I'm continued to be convinced that DVC will play to the 18-25 crowd since it has action and will make them feel smart.

Superman remains the big wild card. I can see it as high as $300M or as low as $125...I'm not confident enough to even split the difference.

Eric's Initial Summer Guesses

1. Pirates of the Caribbean II $350
2. The DaVinci Code $300
3. Cars $230
4. Mission: Impossible 3 $225
5. Superman Returns $175
6. Over The Hedge $175
7. X-Men: The Last Stand $185
8. The Break Up $150
9. Click $140
10. Miami Vice $80
11. You, Me & Dupree $75
12. Poseidon $70
13. The Ant Bully $70
14. Omen $65
15. Nacho Libre $60
16. Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift $60
17. Lady in the Water $60
18. Super Ex-Girlfriend $60
19. Talladega Nights $60
20. Just My Luck $55

Tim's Summer Movie Guesses

The Da Vinci Code-350
Pirates-300
Over The Hedge-250
Mission Impossible-250
Superman-225
X-Men-210
Cars-200
Click-175
Monster House-170
Break Up-140
You, Me & Dupree-125
Miami Vice-110
Talladega Nights-100
Fast & Furious 3- 100
The Omen-95
Lady In The Water-80
Posideon-75
Super Ex-Girlfriend-75
Ant Bully-70
Nacho Libre-60
Garfield- 55
Just My Luck-50
Snakes On A Plane-55
Little Man-40